MSFT call timeline

LIVE: This could be the MOST CONSEQUENTIAL week for markets in 2026. The Fed decides rates, four Magnificent 7 companies report earnings, and the Fed’s favorite inflation data drops. Here’s what matters: 1. Fed rate decision on July 29 (Wed, 2PM ET) Rates have stayed at 3.50%–3.75% for four meetings, and almost nobody expects a change. But markets are now preparing for a possible hike, with many expecting one by September. Why? Oil recently hit $100, raising fears that inflation could heat up again. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is also giving markets fewer hints, so expect a bigger reaction wh

Futures are up, bitcoin is up, and oil is down because of reports that the US and Iran have stopped strikes against each other for the time being. Trump was supposed to strike on Friday but ordered the military not to, and as a result Iran's retaliation was stopped because there wasn't anything to retaliate to. I am not sure if this is a sign of actual progress that can lead to something meaningful, but if there was ever a time for some type of ceasefire, it would be when... - The 10-yr passed 4.7% - Oil was up 25% in a month - The sector responsible for the majority of the S&P 500's earn

As discussed on @CNBC this morning, I expected a near-term “speed bump” in my Saturday post. Did we hit the edge of it today? Did the $SPCX (down 16% today) $20B bond offering and signing of Reflection AI remind investors there is another hyperscale competitor now that also needs funding? Did investors get spooked that the $MSFT CEO on Sunday in the WSJ was considering diversifying its ecosystem? In later media reports this seemed to include potentially hosting the much cheaper DeepSeek models given the rapidly escalating AI bills for customers. Did Nobel prize winner John Jumper leaving $GOOG